2018 Draft Priority

simpsons-sabermetrics

ZIMA
Radioactive Rush
Dome Dog
Sea Bass v13.0
The Groundhogs
SL Disappointments
38 MPH Heaters
InSaNeAuDiO
Salmon Kings
Genies in a Bottle
High Cheese
money grubbers
cracker jack
Captain Jack

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2017 SLB Draft Rankings

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14) InSaNeAuDiO
13) SeaBass v12.0
12) Salmon Kings
11) SL Disappointments
10) Radioactive Rush
09) Genies in a Bottle
08) The Groundhogs
07) 38 MPH Heaters
06) ZIMA
05) cracker jack
04) Dome Dog
03) Captain Jack
02) High Cheese
01) money grubbers

Here is a photo from my initial notes where I jotted down tiers and gut rankings during my multiple flight delays at the airport the day after the draft. Obviously, this is as far as I got in writing or analyzing anything, so these are the rankings:

2017 draft ranks - gut feel only

2016 SLB Bets Results

dollar

The tradition of the $1 bet in the Salmon League began years ago between Mike and Graves as a spin-off of their NFBC $1 bets. Over the years, more and more teams have gotten in on the tradition. It has grown in prominence to the point that a portion of the draft day agenda is denoted for the “paying of the bets and public shaming.”

Here are the results of the 2016 bets. Be sure to bring plenty of $1 bills to pay your debts.

Bet #1a
Graves will return to the playoffs in 2016.
Graves = Yes | Craiggers = No
Bet: 40oz Coors Light
STATUS: Graves wins – finished in 3rd place

Bet #1b
Graves will return to the playoffs in 2016.
Graves = Yes | G-Doggy = No
Bet: $1
STATUS: Graves wins – finished in 3rd place

Bet #1c
Graves will return to the playoffs in 2016.
Graves = Yes | Travis = No
Bet: $1
STATUS: Graves wins – finished in 3rd place

Bet #2
Most Home Runs in 2016: Chris Davis vs Giancarlo Stanton.
Justin = Davis | Travis = Stanton
Bet: loser must purchase a baseball DVD for the winner
DVDs: “Angels in the Outfield” – if Justin Wins and “Little Big League” if Travis Wins
*No Injury Exemption
STATUS: Justinger wins | Davis = 38HR | Stanton = 27HR

Bet #3
Stephen Strasburg will finish in the top three in the Cy Young voting.
Justin = Yes | Travis = No
Bet: $1
*Bet is void if Strasburg is placed on the DL during the 2016 season.
STATUS– VOID

Bet #4
Better end of the season ranking in Yahoo: Mike Trout vs Carlos Correa
Travis = Trout | Adam = Correa
Bet: $1
*No injury exemption
STATUS: Travis wins | Trout = 1 | Correa = 60

Bet #5
Better end of the season ranking in Yahoo: Manny Machado vs Nolan Arenado
Justin = Machado | Mike = Arenado
Bet: $1
*No Injury Exemption
STATUS: Mike wins| Machado = 41 | Arenado = 3

Bet #6
Over/Under 20.5 home runs for Byung-ho Park.
Grant = Over | Adam = Under
Bet: $1
*Bet is void if Park is placed on the DL during the 2016 season.
STATUS: Um…void? I guess we never specified if the minor league DL qualifies? I’d be inclined to void it, personally.

Bet #7
Every hitter that Adam drafted will hit 20 homers or more in 2016. (Hitters Drafted: Todd Frazier, Matt Carpenter, Adrián González, Joc Pederson, Curtis Granderson, Byron Buxton, Russell Martin, and Mark Teixeira)
Adam = Yes | Graves = No
Bet = $1
STATUS: Graves wins.

Bet #8
Better end of the season ranking in Yahoo: Troy Tulowitzki vs Carlos Correa
Steven = Tulo | Mike = Correa
Bet: $1
*No injury exemption
STATUS: Mike wins | Tulowitzki = 624 | Correa = 60

Bet #9
Better end of the season ranking in Yahoo: Mookie Betts vs Miguel Sano
Graves = Mookie | John = Sano
Bet: $1
*No injury exemption
STATUS: Graves wins | Mookie = 2 | Sano = 566

Bet #10
Matt Kemp will miss at least 15 days on the disabled list.
John = Yes | Justin = No
Bet: $1
STATUS: Justin wins

Bet #11
Steven Matz’s end of the season Yahoo rank will rank third or higher among the Mets’ starting rotation.
Justin = Yes | Travis = No
Bet: $1
STATUS: Travis wins | Matz = 503 | Syndergaard = 118 | deGrom = 418 | Colon = 463 | Harvey = 941

Bet #12a
Better end of the season ranking in Yahoo: Gregory Polanco vs Delino DeShields
Adam = Polanco | Grant = DeShields
Bet: $1
*No injury exemption
STATUS: Adam wins | Polanco = 75 | DeShields = 1029

Bet #12b
Better end of the season ranking in Yahoo: Gregory Polanco vs Delino DeShields Jr.
Jay = Polanco | Grant = DeShields
Bet: $1
*No injury exemption
STATUS: Jay wins | Polanco = 75 | DeShields = 1029

Bet #13
Better end of the season ranking in Yahoo: Yasiel Puig vs Jason Heyward
Justin = Puig | Mike = Heyward
Bet: $1
*No injury exemption
STATUS: Mike “wins” | Puig = 818 | Heyward = 703

Bet #14
Byung-ho Park will win the American League Rookie of the Year in 2016.
John = Yes | Justin = No
Bet: $1 if Park is healthy all year
Bet: 50 cents if Park has a DL stint in 2016
STATUS: Justinger wins

Bet #15
The most saves at the end of 2016: Arodys Vizcaino vs Glen Perkins
Levi = Vizcaino | Adam = Perkins
Bet: Bag of Gardetto’s
STATUS: Levi “wins” | Vizcaino = 10 | Perkins = 0

Bet #16
Troy Tulowitzki will miss 62 games or more in 2016.
Adam = Yes | Steven = No
Bet: $1
STATUS: Steven wins

Bet #17
Josh Harrison will be a top-eight second baseman in 2016 based on end of the season Yahoo rankings.
Collin = Yes | Adam = No
Bet: $1
STATUS: Adam wins | Harrison’s Rank Among 2B = 26

Bet #18
Better record if they played H2H every week: Grant vs Graves
Grant = Grant | Graves = Graves
Bet: $1
*TBD via Grant’s stats spreadsheet thingity-thing (which is only a little sketchy)
STATUS: Graves wins | According to the Spreadsheet Thingity-Thing – Graves wins the H2H battle 151-131-26

FUTURE BET 2017-2021
Beginning in 2017 and continuing until 2021, every year that Travis’ official keepers are his “big three for the future” (aka: Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, and Jose Fernandez)…Jeremiah will pay Travis $1 on draft day. Every year that those three are NOT his keepers, Travis will pay Jeremiah $1 on draft day.
*No injury exemption
STATUS: Graves wins (for 2017). Stanton plays elsewhere now. He could (and probably will) reacquire him at least once, if not multiple times, between now and 2021 so this could change in the future.

Non-SLB Bet

G-Doggy will get $275,000 when he sells his house in Primghar, Iowa.
G-Doggy = Yes | Graves = HAHAHAHA no way…it’s f’n Primghar, Iowa!
Bet: $1
STATUS: TBD: G-Doggy has not yet sold his house.

Keeper Decision 2017: Reactions and Rankings

reactions

It is official the Salmon League Baseball keeper deadline for 2017 has come and gone. Keepers are now – barring injury over the next week – locked in for the upcoming season.

This year offered a number of easy choices for many teams, but plenty of owners took the decision down to the wire – including a debatable last-second change from InSaNeAuDiO at the deadline.

I’m going to breakdown the fallout from this year’s keeper choices by looking at the biggest surprises, biggest gambles, and ranking the best and worst teams headed into next week’s draft.

First up, let’s take a look at the biggest surprises.

Rich Hill? More like Rich IsThisGuyForREAL, AMIRITE?!

Hill, 37, is coming off a solid season split between Oakland and Los Angeles. That said, the lefty only managed 110.1 innings while fighting through injuries and ailments that have been a staple of his career. Despite cracking into the league back in 2005, he’s only topped 100 innings one other time and that was way back in 2007 with the Cubs. Since then, ineffectiveness and injury have kept him from being a major contributor.

In looking at the rest of the roster for High Cheese, it’s not hard to see how Danny Salazar or Felix Hernandez made a lot more sense for general manager Levi Elgersma in 2017. Perhaps he knows something we don’t or perhaps he lost a bet, either way; expect High Cheese to target pitching early in the draft.

Last Second Switcheroos

We had two teams make major changes in the waning minutes and seconds before the deadline, despite originally making their announcements well in-advance.

Captain Jack swapped out David Price and his balky elbow for Kate Upton’s boyfriend and (if this information on the internet can be trusted) major league pitcher, Justin Verlander with minutes to spare. An announcement that got buried beneath the commissioner’s failed attempts to post GIFs and the utter chaos that erupted after ZIMA’s amazing keeper announcement video.

As mentioned earlier, InSaNeAuDiO also made a change with mere seconds to go before the 5pm deadline when he swapped Johnny Cueto out and 2015 Cy Young winner, Jake Arrieta in as his pitching keeper for 2017. The move – while bold and unexpected – is also one that could haunt InSaNeAuDiO. Given the two directions both pitchers’ careers appeared to be headed at the end of last season.

End of an Era + Re-Breaking New(ish) Ground

The reigning and defending SLB champion, The Groundhogs was the only team to not make a public announcement about their selections, but was also one of the first teams to send major shockwaves through the league on deadline day when the club made two major decisions.

First, the club opted to part ways with long-time franchise cornerstone, Ryan Braun. Braun has been with the club since 2008 and seemed almost assured of a roster spot again in 2017. The decision to cut Braun is even more perplexing after he posted the fourth highest OPS in his time with the club last season. At 33-years-old, he’s hardly over the hill and is, in fact, younger than Robinson Cano who was kept around for this season…an intriguing decision to say the least.

Second, The Groundhogs became the first second club in league history to keep a relief pitcher over a starter. This hasn’t happened since the money grubbers opted to keep Jonathan Broxton way back in 2010. Admittedly, there wasn’t much to choose from on the roster and Aroldis Chapman certainly holds more immediate value than the club’s alternative options. It’s impossible to fault him for the decision and it was predicted by many in advance, but still it is a first rarity for the league.

Story Time for ZIMA

Coming into the deadline, two of the keepers for ZIMA were all but set in stone. The third keeper was up in the air. Given the club’s long-term commitment to #SpringerDinger and the uncertainty of Trevor Story’s ability to duplicate and/or expand on his breakout 2016 campaign – most assumed it’d be a repeat of last year’s keepers.

ZIMA general manager threw all of that out the window with his incredible keeper announcement video minutes before the deadline. The selection of Story over George Springer was certainly a real (ju)sting to one general manager who was targeting the young shortstop in the draft.

In addition to the surprises, there were also some selections that could be viewed as major gambles for the clubs that made them. In some cases it was a selection between two very good players that could go either way and in others; it was a full-on gamble that a player has turned a corner and is ready to find a new gear going forward.

Byron Buxton or Byron Buston?

Byron Buxton should be a stud. He’s got the pedigree, the skills, and the opportunity. Yet, almost every time the Minnesota Twins have put him in position to take over as the center fielder of the franchise for the next decade – he’s failed to live up to his hype, or even Ben Revere’s hype.

That all changed late last season when he got called up and went on a tear. It was a small sample size of success, but it was enough to convince the Salmon Kings to keep Buxton on as a keeper. If Buxton has finally figured it out, this club will be annoyingly successful for a longtime. If he returns to his earlier form, this will go down as one of the few recent keeper gambles on young talent that didn’t work out.

Turner 1.1 – BAYBAY

Easily the most (over-)hyped player coming into the 2017 season is Trea Turner. The 23-year-old had an absolutely electric MLB debut last season ripping off a ridiculous .342/.370/.567 line while piling up 53 runs, 14 doubles, eight triples, 13 home runs, 40 runs batted in, and 33 stolen bases in just 73 games played. He did all of that while learning to play outfield on the fly to fill a need for the Nationals. It’s unsurprisingly that he’s ranked in the top 15 on most draft boards and has even gone in the top 5 in a number of major drafts despite his lack of big league experience.

So why on earth didn’t the Genies keep him? Well…that’s a very good question. Despite the hype, Turner did come with a ridiculously high (and unsustainable) BABIP and inflated power numbers that hadn’t made an appearance at any other level. Turner could come back to earth – which would still make him an incredibly valuable player – or he could live up to the hype and force the Genies general manager to spend yet another season lamenting over a keeper selection gone awry. Xander Bogaerts is a very, very good player in his own right and is still growing as a hitter, but Turner has the potential to be the National League’s answer to Jose Altuve and, well, that’s pretty damn good and hard to pass up.

Craiggers Keeps Kyle Schwarzenegger

A year ago, the Genies kept Kyle Schwarber with grand designs of having a catcher-eligible player who rarely catches, but has the ability to get on-base at a great clip and mash very, very, very long home runs whilst entrenched in the middle of arguably the best lineup in baseball. A year ago, that plan blew up along with Schwarber’s ACL during the slugger’s second start of the season in left field.

This year, it’s Sea Bass general manager Craiggers aiming for that same game plan. In rolling the dice on Schwarber’s health and playing time, he left two major contributors from last year’s squad – Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy – out in the cold for the 2017 campaign. If Schwarber is fully-healed and ready to play most days, this will be a great decision. If his balky knee is a problem in the outfield, things could get dicey with first base in Chicago occupied and no designated hitter slot available.

Finally, let’s take a look at the strongest and the weakest teams heading into draft day.

Strongest Clubs

Big Magoo is Money

It comes as no surprise that money grubbers are ranked at the top of the heap here. The club has three of the best young keepers in the game and the ability to add a third to the mix with top draft priority. He controls his fate on draft day and has the ability to garner the top overall pick – ensuring he locks up another elite bat at a premium position – or he could position himself to make the most of the wrap, a position which has yielded great results over the years.

cracker jack is back (again)

While he doesn’t have the same draft priority power as the money grubbers, he does have three lights out keepers and a knack for making the most of wherever he lands in the draft. Machado – while unlikely to swap 20 bags again – is at/near the top of the heap at two different positions and is still coming into his prime, Votto is one of the game’s most prolific on-base machines and a noted hater of paper airplanes, and Max Scherzer – if he’s not dead, I’ve heard rumors lately – is a phenom fueled by his love of chocolate syrup and no-hitters.

Volatile. Fuckwithable. Lacking Chill. Stocked with Talent.

38 MPH Heaters general manager Morgan Lux is a lot of things…but one thing he is not, is deficient of talent or enviable draft priority. He’s got his middle infield locked up with two multi-category contributors in Jose Altuve and Francisco Lindor. Throw in Madison Bumgarner as his ace and he has one of the best pitchers in all of baseball anchoring his rotation. This trio of studs is paired up with the fourth overall draft priority, allowing 38 MPH Heaters a lot of leeway to make the most of draft day.

Weakest Clubs

Seriously, Was He High?!

It was mentioned above in the “biggest surprises” section, but opting to roll with Rich Hill as his keeper pitcher over Danny Salazar or Felix Hernandez is a bold choice for High Cheese. If Hill is healthy, effective, and manages to pitch 200 innings at his full capacity, he looks like a genius. That said, right now it seems like a very risky choice for a club that’s once again opening the season handcuffed in terms of position-flexibility, banking on Freddie Freeman matching last year’s career year – which required a blistering 1.067 OPS in the second half – and is sitting on the pedestrian number eight draft priority slot. He’s proven to be one of the savviest general managers in the league in the past, but recent history has not been kind to the High Cheese franchise.

Disappointments – it’s in the Name

There’s a very real chance that the collective ennui of Twins fans is playing into this ranking, but Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier are hardly anyone’s idea of top shelf keepers right now. Sano has the potential to make me look like an idiot for saying that if he can get back on track as a 40 home run masher, but he’s coming off a year where he fell short of the lofty expectations set for him by the club, his fans, and himself. Dozier is coming off of a career year that saw him eclipse the 40 home run mark, all while turning around a putrid first half. Two years in a row he’s put up monster numbers for half a season and looked lost for the other half, which one is the real Dozier and which one will general manager John Kunkel get in 2017? Chris Archer is also coming off a disappointing year, but has the ability to rebound back to ace in waiting status in a hurry. The club has a good, not great seventh draft priority slot – but the club will be starting the draft with some work to do.

F’n Groundhog

The defending champions, The Groundhogs have already gotten some play in the surprises section, but we’re cycling back when looking at their draft day expectations. The curious decision to jettison Ryan Braun and the lack of a frontline starter leaves this club looking a little worse for wear, despite the shiny trophy they’ll be sitting next to on draft day. Jose Abreu is coming off of a down year and has seen his numbers slip each season he’s been in the big leagues. Robinson Cano – while coming off a monster power year – is 34-years-old and continues to see his numbers stymied by his home ball park, forcing him to do a lot of his damage on the road last season. Aroldis Chapman is arguably the best closer in baseball, but he would have been available in rounds three or four (most likely). He’s a very good player and the right choice given the other options, but the lack of any viable alternatives is never good – especially if Chapman is hurt between now and draft day (*wink*). When you toss in the final draft priority, it’s looking like a bit of an uphill battle for the reigning champ.

In closing – let’s take a look at the three keeper reveal videos from cracker jack, Dome Dog, and ZIMA.

cracker jack

Dome Dog

ZIMA

SLB Amendment Voting Results

ELECTION

We only had one amendment proposal that received enough support to be up for vote this offseason and in damn-near an hour enough of the votes were cast to make a determination on the outcome of that amendment.

I’ve waited to post until all of the votes were officially in, but this one was over pretty quickly last night with a landslide victory for Mike’s draft time limit proposal.

Amusingly enough, there are a number of people who apparently didn’t actually read the proposal before voting on it and/or lack basic comprehension skills as they didn’t understand it or assumed it meant something else.

So yeah, the education system is doing great work. I’m sure the Trump administration will only further these efforts.

Anyway, without any further ado, let’s look at the final breakdown of votes:

Amendment #1 – Draft  Time Limit

Proposal: Establish a five minute time allotment for each pick. If a team has not made a pick within that five minute window, the next team can pick as soon as the clock hits zero. At that time the five minute allotment begins again. If the team fails to make a selection in that five minutes the next team can make their selection. This continues until the original team has made a selection.

Proposed: Big Magoo

Endorsed: Phteven, Justinger, and TCB

2017-amendmentresults

Draft Review and Rankings 2016

2016 draft review rankings

At long last, it’s time for the 2016 edition of the Draft Review and Rankings.

As always, I want to make it very clear that there is no science or metrics (or legitimacy) to these rankings. It is completely subjective and based on my opinions toward players, their value, their abilities, and where/when you drafted them in relation to my perceived views of value elsewhere in the draft.

Just because I ranked you near the bottom doesn’t mean you won’t/can’t win this thing.

I’ve had a lot of people take these things personally over the years and that’s just silly pants, don’t be silly pants. These are no more accurate or telling about potential success than if any one of you were to randomly write a ranking yourself. It’s all opinion.

That having been said, there are a few rules I tried to stick to when doing the rankings.

I tried to avoid using any players you’ve acquired since the draft and – aside from occasional mentions – I tried to avoid factoring your keepers into your team strength. I really wanted to focus on JUST the draft itself. Obviously, as I re-read this, I screwed up given that this was written over a course of many days. Some of your rankings will include more references to keepers than others. This is an imperfect science.

Additionally, I tried to avoid giving anyone credit for a “best pick” within the first three rounds, because it’s really hard to give anyone tons of praise for an early pick as we’re still talking about All-Star caliber players and most of those should be gimmie picks. At the same time, I also tried to avoid ragging on anyone with a “worst pick” in the final three picks of the draft as it’s often scrap heap time for a lot of teams who are stockpiling NA or DL-stashes or grabbing your holds guy.

That doesn’t, however, mean that some of you didn’t have your “best pick” in the final three or your “worst pick” in the first three. It happened, a couple of times actually.

Also, just so y’all have an idea of how this works, I generally rank the teams immediately after the draft based on “gut feel.” After that I take some time to dig through the rosters and look at some stats, but I generally go with my “gut feel” for the final rankings. Some teams will move up or down the more I look at them, but for the most part the ranking is reflective of how I felt on draft day after round 17.

As always, I’d love some feedback – love it, hate it, wish I’d die in a chemical fire – hit me with it.

Alrighty, enough of me rambling, let’s do this thing, without any further ado; here is the 2016 Draft Review and Rankings…


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