SLB 2017 Undeniably Way Too Early Keeper Predictions

2017 keepers.png

It’s become a January tradition, so I’m back here today to unveil the undeniably way too early keeper predictions for the 2017 season.

In looking at the keeper options, it appears as though most teams fall into one of three categories. They either have some slam dunk, super-easy keeper decisions decisions, a wealth of enticing options, or a butt-ton of very meh options.

I won’t pretend to know who everyone is going to keep so my formula for making these decisions is based on a combination of my gut choice, the owner’s keeper track record, and – in some instances – the flipping of a coin or rolling of a die to make the decision for me.

Obviously, a lot can change between now and the keeper deadline in March, but these are merely my current predictions and some dark horse options in case of injury or indecision.

So, without any further ado…here are the way-way-way too early keeper predictions.

Mr. Magoo, co-created by animation legend John Hubley. Mr. Magoomoney grubbers

Keeper Prediction:
Nolan Arenado (COL–3B)
Carlos Correa (HOU–SS)
Chris Sale (BOS–SP)

Dark Horse(s): Kenley Jansen (LAD–RP) & Whit Merrifield (KC–2B)
Draft Priority: 1

insaneaudio-new-logoInSaNeAuDiO

Keeper Prediction:
Miguel Cabrera (DET–1B)
Charlie Blackmon (COL–OF)
Johnny Cueto (SF–SP)

Dark Horse(s): Jake Arrieta (CHC–SP) & Evan Longoria (TB–3B)
Draft Priority: 2

seabass001Sea Bass v12.0

Keeper Prediction:
Kris Bryant (CHC–3B/OF)
Yoenis Cespedes (NYM–OF)
Noah Syndergaard (NYM–SP)

Dark Horse(s): Kyle Schwarber (CHC–C/OF)
Draft Priority: 3

38mph00138 MPH Heaters

Keeper Prediction:
Francisco Lindor (CLE–SS)
Jose Altuve (HOU–2B)
Madison Bumgarner (SF–SP)

Dark Horse(s): Chris Davis (BAL–1B) & AJ Pollock (ARI–OF)
Draft Priority: 4

zima001ZIMA

Keeper Prediction:
Josh Donaldson (TOR–3B)
George Springer (HOU–OF)
Clayton Kershaw (LAD–SP)

Dark Horse(s): Andrew Benintendi (BOS–OF) & Trevor Story (COL–SS)
Draft Priority: 5

dome_dog_logoDome Dog

Keeper Prediction:
Andrew McCutchen (PIT–OF)
Corey Seager (LAD–SS)
Jacob deGrom (NYM–SP)

Dark Horse(s): Matt Carpenter (STL–1B/2B/3B), Dee Gordon (MIA–2B), & Andrew Miller (CLE–RP)
Draft Priority: 6

SLDSL Disappointments

Keeper Prediction:
Miguel Sano (MIN–3B/OF)
Brian Dozier (MIN–2B)
Chris Archer (TB–SP)

Dark Horse(s): Jose Bautista (FA–OF), Justin Turner (LAD–3B), & Cole Hamels (TEX–SP)
Draft Priority: 7

cheese-high-final001High Cheese

Keeper Prediction:
Freddie Freeman (ATL–1B)
Anthony Rizzo (CHC–1B)
Danny Salazar (CLE–SP)

Dark Horse(s): Giancarlo Stanton (MIA–OF), Felix Hernandez (SEA–SP), Rich Hill (LAD–SP) & Jason Kipnis (CLE–2B)
Draft Priority: 8

Jack Sparow Flag-01Captain Jack

Keeper Prediction:
Bryce Harper (WAS–OF)
Rougned Odor (TEX–2B)
David Price (BOS–SP)

Dark Horse(s): Justin Upton (DET–OF), J.D. Martinez (WAS–OF), & Justin Verlander (DET–SP)
Draft Priority: 9

radioactiverush001Radioactive Rush

Keeper Prediction:
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI–1B)
Edwin Encarnación (CLE–1B)
Carlos Carrasco (CLE–SP)

Dark Horse(s): Matt Harvey (NYM–SP), Stephen Strasburg (WAS–SP), & Starling Marte (PIT–OF)
Draft Priority: 10

Genies in a Bottlegenies2016

Keeper Prediction:
Mookie Betts (BOS–OF)
Lew Ford (VEN-OF)
Corey Kluber (CLE–SP)

Dark Horse(s): Xander Bogaerts (BOS– SS), Trea Turner (WAS–2B/SS/OF), & Masahiro Tanaka (NYY–SP)
Draft Priority: 11

cracker jackcrackerjack-alternate003

Keeper Prediction:
Manny Machado (BAL–SS/3B)
Alex Bregman (HOU–3B)
Max Scherzer (WAS–SP)

Dark Horse(s): Yoan Moncada (CWS–2B/3B), Joey Votto (CIN–1B), Jon Lester (CHC–SP), & Dellin Betances (NYY–RP)
Draft Priority: 12

Salmon Kingssalmonkings003

Keeper Prediction:
Mike Trout (LAA–OF)
Addison Russell (CHC–SS)
Carlos Martinez (STL–SP)

Dark Horse(s): Byron Buxton (MIN–OF), Carlos Gonzalez (COL–OF), Wil Myers (SD–1B), Julio Urias (LAD–SP), Aaron Sanchez (TOR–SP) & Kevin Gausman (BAL–SP)
Draft Priority: 13

The Groundhogsgroundhog003

Keeper Prediction:
Ryan Braun (MIL–OF)
Jose Abreu (CWS–1B)
Aroldis Chapman (NYY–RP)

Dark Horse(s): Robinson Cano (SEA–2B) & Gerrit Cole (PIT–SP)
Draft Priority: 14

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Grant’s 2016 Season Review

Minnesota at Texas

Original Story + Graphs by: Grant Morfitt

Another season in the books for the Salmon League and it was a tight one. 7 teams over 500 ball yet only 6 get in. With some new knowledge on how everyone would do against everyone else any given week and a true SOS shown, things got heated for some down the stretch.

First off, let’s go all the way back to the beginning of the year and revisit our draft. Once the draft is over it’s a mad fight for who did good, who did bad, who picked the most sleepers, and overall just who was paying attention. Well now that we have a full season in the books, how was everyone’s draft in reality? I took everyone’s teams they drafted and compiled their stats through the last day of our regular season, no moves, just the team you drafted, including your keepers. This is what the stats look like:

001

One note is that for OBP, ERA, and WHIP, I was unable to weight that to AB and IP, so a great reliever could bring down ERA and WHIP, but also the opposite is true for a pitcher who had only 1 start who got hurt (Tyson Ross).

I took the liberty of ranking each category 1-14 and then giving everyone a sum, more is good, to get a final rank of everyone’s draft. I have also included my initial rankings after the draft took place:

Actual Rank                                                                        Initial Rank

In looking at the actual ranking we see that all the playoff teams were in the top of the league, ZIMA and money grubbers were way up but missed the playoffs.

Next we look at each category and who was the winner and the loser in each, and also what the difference would be per week from top to bottom, get a sense of how close each category was, except the average stats:

004005006007

So let’s take a look at the actual statistics from each team this year, this will be real simple, I’ve got a table that has each team and what they got for each category followed again by a ranking of those stats the same was as always, each category 1-14, with more being better.

008

009As you can see from the table to the left, roto rankings do not translate exactly into H2H rankings, this is just a ranking on team stats all year, doesn’t account for real greats weeks when you blow someone out, or also real bad weeks when you don’t get much in each category. So to make up for that I have my next section.

So because we are a H2H league, let’s take a look at a team’s statistical finish each week then average them to see where they placed on average within the league. As most people should know each week I publish the rankings giving 1-14 points to each category, and then the next week that would reset to be all equal again. Using all 22 weeks we can see where each team finished on average.

010So basically to read this, Genies finished on average as a little better than the 5th best team each week, which was the top. This also gives us a clearer picture on the playoffs, the only outliers really are ZIMA and Rush. This then also leads into the next section of being lucky.

With H2H, there is always going to be that luck factor, on any given week how well does the team you play perform, as well as your own team, and how would you have done against about anyone else in the league. I have tried to capture this in a number using my own method.

For any given week I calculated what was your best possible outcome, be that 14-0, or maybe 9-5. Then I also calculated the worse possible outcome. Taking your actual record we can see how much closer you are to your best record or worst record and take the difference to get the “luck factor.” Here is everyone’s luck factor.

011The bigger the positive number means that you are closer to your best overall record than your worse overall record.

Below are the same graphs I had for mid-year but for the whole year, again here is a little explanation.

First there is a graph showing your weekly statistical rank. This is based on a point system where the best you can get is 14 and the worse is 1, no matter how much ahead or behind you are (left axis).

Secondly over that is a graph showing your actual winning % for the week (right axis). In an ideal world those graphs would follow each other pretty closely, but they don’t always.

I have also included what I call the “Luck Factor.”

Well so here we go–

38 MPH Heaters:

012

Captain Jack Sparrow:

013

cracker jack:

014

Dome Dog:

015

Genies in a Bottle:

016

The Groundhogs:

024

High Cheese:

017

InSaNeAuDiO:

018

money grubbers:

019

Radioactive Rush:

020

Salmon Kings:

021

Sea Bass v11.0:

022

SL Disappointments:

023

ZIMA:

025