Grant’s Mid-Season Review

lucky

Original Story + Graphs by: Grant Morfitt | Edits + Formatting by: Jeremiah Graves

The temperatures have warmed up and June is about to give way to July. This means that we are now at the halfway mark of the 2016 SLB season and, thus far, things are tight.

We have eight teams with a .500 or better record and only four games currently separate the top five teams in the standings.

Despite that, we still have a lot of season left to play and we’ve seen many major shakeups in the second-half in recent years.

In order to look at what has happened and what could happen in the second-half, I took a dive into the overall numbers.

Below I have included some information on each of the teams in the league. First, there is a graph showing each club’s weekly statistical rank. This is based on a point system where the best you can get in any given category is 14 and the worse is 1, no matter how much ahead or behind you are (left axis). Secondly, over that is a graph showing your actual winning percentage for the week (right axis).

In an ideal world those graphs would follow each other pretty closely, but they don’t always. I have also included what I call the “Luck Factor,” this is the percent based on how much closer you are to your best possible overall record to your worst, this is based on how you would do in match-ups against everyone else in the league in any given week.

In layman’s terms: bigger positive equals lucky and bigger negative equals unlucky.

Without any further ado, here are the graphs:

38 MPH Heaters:

38mph

Captain Jack Sparrow:

captainjacksparrow

Cracker Jack:

crackerjack

Dome Dog:

domedog

Genies in a Bottle:

geniesinabottle

The Groundhogs:

groundhogs

High Cheese:

highcheese

InSaNeAuDiO:

insaneaudio

money grubbers:

moneygrubbers

Radioactive Rush:

radioactiverush

Salmon Kings:

salmonkings

Sea Bass v11.0:

seabass

SL Disappointments:

sldisappointments

ZIMA:

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Finally, I thought it would be fun to see what records would look like if everyone had zero luck, or exactly half-way between best and worst possible. In that scenario the standings would look like this:

overall-with-zero-luck

 

SLBrew-Off

homebrew

This afternoon a handful of us were chatting about Collin’s foray into home brewing and we were pumped about the prospect of sampling some of the Brand’s Brew creations he might cook up.

It got us thinking that he should create a commemorative batch of home brew for the next SLB Draft.

This initially led to us thinking up a slew of awesome SLB-themed beer names including: Salmon League Lager, Round Six Segura Stout, Grant-is-Garbage Gose, Dome Dog Double IPA, SeaBass Saison, Hold-Up, There’s a Problem with the Draft Tool Session Ale (note: this one will need to be a session ale or you’ll die drinking one every time the namesake situation arises), SL Disappointments Dark, Four Kunkel Dunkel, maibock grubbers, InSaNeAppLeJuIcE, SLB Golden Fishy (note: this is like Michelob Golden, but aged in a bucket with all of the pre-modern era championship trophies), 38MPH Hefeweizen, Genies in a Bock-le, SeaBass Smoked Stout, SalmonKings 4 Fishy Flemish, Big Magoo Maibock, etc.

The list really could go on.

Morgan suggested (perhaps jokingly?) that we could all try our hand at brewing for the next draft.

Given that all I’ve ingested today is sparkling water and multiple pots of coffee, I ran with the idea and figured we could each be tasked with brewing our own beer and then we’d have an official BREW-OFF at the draft where we’d each bring our sample and do a tasting to determine the best SLBrewer!

Here is how I figured it’d go down for every team:

Morgan hasn’t slept for eight days before the draft and certainly hasn’t thought about brewing his own beer. He shows up with six-kinds of chip dip, four crock pots, and no beer. No one complains.

Adam gets caught up in creating perfect labels and he forgets to brew any beer.

John is annoyed at how long brewing takes and brings a case of Keystone he grabbed at the gas station just before pulling up to the draft.

Mike pays someone else to brew for him, but won’t drink or touch any beer himself. He doesn’t like beer (perhaps you’ve heard?). He sips some fancy wine and later switches to a fine whiskey for a nightcap.

Craiggers just pours whiskey into some mismatched empty beer bottles and doesn’t fuck around with brewing at all. He doesn’t even change the labels or re-cap the beer. Craiggers gonna Craiggers.

G-Doggy buys some Johnny Appleseed or whatever on the way up and duct tapes over the label and then scrawls out “InSaNeAppLeJuIcE” in his serial killer handwriting with a Sharpie.

Jay pretends he doesn’t care and we have no idea if he’s even participating in the brew-off. Meanwhile, he secretly opens a fully-functioning brewery without ever alerting anyone. He shows up on draft day with some good beer, but plays coy about the entire thing.

Graves drinks all of his beer before his flight leaves Boston. He purchases a bunch of beer when he gets to the Midwest, but he drinks all of that too. He does not win (or, quite likely, even remember) the brew-off.

Levi doesn’t have time for this lowbrow beer brewing bullshit. He hires a personal bartender to make cocktails for the evening. He is most certainly wearing a jacket with tails and a monocle.

Travis and Grant didn’t know it was happening. They blame the lack of updates and web-presence. They would like to propose amendments about us “starting a website” and adding “quality starts” to the scoring, but they have no idea how/where one might do such a thing. They are the worst.

Steven overthinks the entire process and spends all winter trying to be smarter than everyone else and brews a disappointing, mediocre beer; clearly crumbling under the pressure of heightened expectations.

Justin borrows Steven’s recipe, but tweaks it and brews a way better beer…but he trades the beer to Travis on brew-off day for FAAB dollars and Hanley Ramirez, thus Travis has the better beer.

Collin shows up with legit beer, serves everyone a refreshing Salmon League Lager, and wins the whole fucking thing.

win-the-whole-fing-thing

Draft Review and Rankings 2016

2016 draft review rankings

At long last, it’s time for the 2016 edition of the Draft Review and Rankings.

As always, I want to make it very clear that there is no science or metrics (or legitimacy) to these rankings. It is completely subjective and based on my opinions toward players, their value, their abilities, and where/when you drafted them in relation to my perceived views of value elsewhere in the draft.

Just because I ranked you near the bottom doesn’t mean you won’t/can’t win this thing.

I’ve had a lot of people take these things personally over the years and that’s just silly pants, don’t be silly pants. These are no more accurate or telling about potential success than if any one of you were to randomly write a ranking yourself. It’s all opinion.

That having been said, there are a few rules I tried to stick to when doing the rankings.

I tried to avoid using any players you’ve acquired since the draft and – aside from occasional mentions – I tried to avoid factoring your keepers into your team strength. I really wanted to focus on JUST the draft itself. Obviously, as I re-read this, I screwed up given that this was written over a course of many days. Some of your rankings will include more references to keepers than others. This is an imperfect science.

Additionally, I tried to avoid giving anyone credit for a “best pick” within the first three rounds, because it’s really hard to give anyone tons of praise for an early pick as we’re still talking about All-Star caliber players and most of those should be gimmie picks. At the same time, I also tried to avoid ragging on anyone with a “worst pick” in the final three picks of the draft as it’s often scrap heap time for a lot of teams who are stockpiling NA or DL-stashes or grabbing your holds guy.

That doesn’t, however, mean that some of you didn’t have your “best pick” in the final three or your “worst pick” in the first three. It happened, a couple of times actually.

Also, just so y’all have an idea of how this works, I generally rank the teams immediately after the draft based on “gut feel.” After that I take some time to dig through the rosters and look at some stats, but I generally go with my “gut feel” for the final rankings. Some teams will move up or down the more I look at them, but for the most part the ranking is reflective of how I felt on draft day after round 17.

As always, I’d love some feedback – love it, hate it, wish I’d die in a chemical fire – hit me with it.

Alrighty, enough of me rambling, let’s do this thing, without any further ado; here is the 2016 Draft Review and Rankings…


Continue reading

Grant’s Draft Rankings 2016

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Here it is. Time for another unbiased team ranking entering the season. I don’t want to say draft ranking because I am also putting keepers into these rankings. So how does your team look going into the season based on projections?

or projections I averaged two sources; Steamer, and an unnamed source. I like Steamer projections the best, and there is also a reason that many sites put it in their consensus projections over the likes of ZiPS. My unnamed source deals mostly in 5×5 roto, but has been very good at projecting the nine stats that I used from them, since we use OBP I couldn’t use AVG.

Team makeup plays a big role in how some systems rank people teams. If Team A has 12 batters but Team B only 10, one team has a huge advantage in gaining more counting stats, so how do you counter this? I have given everyone that someone drafted some sort of stats on your team. For bench people I took their projections and divided them by three, then added them in. How did I end up at three? Well I figured that each team has six games a week, and since most bench people are plug and play on off days, since there are two big off days, I figured they would see your lineup on average of two games out of the six per week.

Pitchers are a different story, I used all stats from pitchers, unless you for some reason had more than four relievers, which no one did. I figure if you drafted a starter you are going to start him, so it woks different than bench bats. Doing it this way people will be mad because then counting stats for teams that went pitching heavy will be elevated, remember though, more SP mean more losses, and a potential in late rounds to negatively affect ERA and WHIP.

All teams except three were an 11 or 10 batters, with three having 12 batters so that won’t matter too much anyway on the difference.

So here is how every ones teams ended up:

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It’s interesting to take a look at the bottom and the top and see the difference

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Since each category gives one point, we can rank everyone within the category 1-14. 14 being the best and 1 being the worst:

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Pivot table off of that:

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There you have it.

Following is a little snip about each team’s draft.

money grubbers

When your keepers are two top 15, almost top 10 players, who just happen to also be in the infield you are set up nice. How do you complement that by getting two of the best OF remaining and you have a team that could win all batting categories each week. Two of the top closers and a high K staff also make his pitching excellent.

ZIMA

The best pitcher on the planet anchors a solid rotation with a few excellent relievers makes his pitching something to fear. Top five in every batting category except steals makes him trouble as well.

Captain Jack

Two keepers who could net 80 or more homers, nice. Because he didn’t need the power he went more balanced with most batters, which actually left him a little light on power and runs, but solid everything else. A ridiculous bullpen that could win saves and holds each week with maybe the best one two pitching combination as well.

Radioactive Rush

Keepers that complement each other very nicely gave him 45 homers and 45 steals right off the bat. Hitters that are very balanced keep him in every batting category each week. Two high saves and two high holds guys anchor the pen. Questions about his second and third starters do loom.

Genies in a Bottle

In a league that counts doubles, Mookie gets a great boost to an already stellar tool set that could see him go 25/25. Has extreme balance in his batters, possibly a little low in OBP. What’s better than one pitcher on the Indians, how about two! Throw in some consistent relievers and high upside starters and watch out.

Dome Dog

Hello power. Could win home runs each week easily. He also has two prospects that if perform to their capabilities could put this team over the top easily. The ace in NYC is great, along with a solid staff, and great middle relief put this pitching near the top as well. Another pitching prospect could make it even better. If this is the year of the rookies, everyone in this league better watch out.

38 MPH Heaters

He’s probably not going to win HR and RBI each week, but everything else is looking pretty solid from this team. Also he has a lot of batters with track records so he should know what he is getting. Seven starters as well as low WHIP high K relievers give him the edge in those categories each week.

TheFightingFernandos

He has the lineup to win HR and RBI each week with ease, enough of everything else to put him in contention each week. One two punch with high K pitchers combined with great low WHIP relievers give this staff some great balance to contend.

High Cheese

Keeping two at the same infield position is never ideal, but it doesn’t hurt when one is top 5 overall and the other is top 10 at position. Has the batters to be in every category week in and week out with ease. Only rocking 5 starters and 3 relievers hurts the numbers as bit but still has a solid chance to take 4 of 7 each week if not more.

cracker jack

Do you like power? Well cracker jack sure does. Project first by a mile on HR and RBI, even doubles. Does he have enough of everything else to contend in the other four categories? With his staff he is hoping for some serious performance from some question marks or unknown people, if he gets that, could mean good things, otherwise…

Salmon Kings

I guess when you have the best player in baseball by a mile you can take some risks in the draft on some hope and prays. Everyone on his team needs to perform at peak level and nothing less to make this a lineup to be feared. A solid bullpen, with an underrated staff I believe could make this pitching better than what it seems.

SL Disappointments

He likes speed, a lot of speed. Questions at his corners could make or break this team. He has probably the best 1-3 starters in the league, followed by 2 other solid options give him a deadly rotation. Three closers boosts his saves.

Sea Bass v11.0

One of the top young 3B in the country and a great young SS followed by lots of questions. He got a great one starter in Syndergaard to complement Gray as well as a couple other great upside starters. Three holds guys lets him possibly win that category each week.

InSaNeAuDiO

Another team with lots of speed, potentially one over 50 SB, one close to 40, and another close to 30. He’s going to score runs as well and get on base. Problem is he doesn’t have a lot of people who knock in runs or hit home runs. His pitching has some questions, he does have high K starters which is always nice and a great holds man, but otherwise it isn’t too exciting.

Worst Potential SLB Commissioners, Ranked

commish

It’s not uncommon in the SLB Message Board for us to chat about the chain of command should the incumbent commissioner find himself on the wrong-end of a plane crash, hit by a bus, or dead because of his reckless approach to nutrition and health.

It’s generally been perceived that there is one logical heir to the commissionership should the aforementioned scenarios come to pass and lead to the demise of the current commish. To further clarify things, I have ranked the potential commissioners from worst to the least worst.

Consider this the inverse order of how we will divvy up commissionership upon my death.

1. G-Doggy – pays attention once every couple of months for a few days at a time. No trade would ever get approved. He has to ask me every season where his roster is and who had had on his team. He might still draft Mariano Rivera this year. Not the guy you want at the helm.

2. Grant – may actually think we’re playing fantasy football based on his track record…also he likes Rush and is rarely in attendance. I feel like, organizationally, he might have the chops for it, but I think the league would rise up and slay him a week into the job when he starts throwing down Commissioner Decrees about Quality Starts and Mt. Dew consumption.

3. Travis – he’s a god damned lunatic who wants to abolish all non-trade moves and force teams to rely entirely on how good of a draft they have and how easily they’re able to rape and pillage Grant’s team in trade talks. The league would take on a very North Korea-vibe and anyone who questioned or opposed the commissioner would likely have an “accident” and be removed from the league.

4. Morgan – the man’s sleep schedule would not mesh with angry managers prompting trade approvals, guaranteed he’d kick six or seven teams out by the All-Star break. He also has proven to be, um, volatile at times when harassed and – similar to Travis, above – it seems apparent that some of y’all would be murdered at the hands of the new commish.

5. Jay – he’s the Groundhog. That is NOT an effective way to manage a very active, very vocal league.

6. John – he’s too damn likable. People love to get mad at the commish and yell at him for things and that wouldn’t work with John. Plus, he’s the INAGURAL CHAMPION – he already has a full docket of promotional endeavors for the league that cannot be encroached upon.

7. Craiggers – if we’re being honest, I can’t imagine a world where he’d want this gig. Craiggers seems plenty content to make amazing databases and be the league’s resident tech wizard, but when the yelling starts and people need a resolution, he’s probably got half-a-bottle of whiskey in his belly and he’s disappeared into a vape cloud. That’s not his bag, baybay.

8. Collin – this is the real wild card. He is well-liked and respected in the league. He’s been around for quite some time now and has a solid handle on the league’s history. He’s responsive and active. He keeps crazy hours, especially during the season. I just can’t imagine he’d want to deal with it. He’s a chill fella. This gig does not provide chill.

9. Levi – this was a tricky one. I think Levi has the perfect temperament to handle the role, but he falls off the grid for large chunks of time and that would not work well when Travis is texting him 18 times a day to approve a trade. He also seems self-aware enough to laugh in the face of my lawyer when he offers him the role, stir his cocktail, and walk away without taking on this band of misfits as his problem.

10. Justin – similar to John, he might be too likeable for the role. He’s doesn’t have that same “scream at a room full of people” nature that Mike and Steven do, but he has the respect of the entire league and a great track record of success. He’s almost always responsive and – aside from some potential concerns about the commissioner also making 10,000 trades a year – he strikes me as one of the safest bets to avoid an uprising.

11. Adam – he’s your best non-Kunkel option. He’s online all the time, responsive, and progressive in his thinking for league improvement based on his track record in the amendments process. He’s well-respected and carries some gravitas from his coaching experience. Plus, he’s the logo guy. Logo guy always earns points.

12. Mike – he’s loud. He’s brash. He’s wildly unlikable. All of that said, he gets things done. He’ll yell over the crowd long enough to make his voice heard and he’s got loads of practice using angry dad voice when necessary.

13. Steven – he’s our guy. He’s got the organizational skills. This is based on his track record running that other league and his long-term record keeping and screen-shotting skills. He’s got just enough patience to handle all of the jerks in this league…he’s the guy.

So there you have it, the unequivocal rankings from worst to least worst.

If my plane hits a mountain or a blimp or a pterodactyl or something on the way to this year’s draft, we have an official succession plan for commissionership.

Also, in an effort to improve league diversity and inclusion, the new commissioner will be tasked with replacing my spot in the league with an under-represented minority. Racism isn’t cool.

Statement from the Office of the Commissioner

commish-podium001

While it is my utmost intention to preserve the democratic nature of Salmon League Baseball, it is within my purview as commissioner to enact change without the standard amendment proposal and voting process.

As such, I am announce three commissioner decrees today that go into effect immediately with the intent of improving the keeper selection process and draft in 2016 and beyond.

Decree #1 – Violation of the Keeper Deadline

Any team that doesn’t submit their keepers by the keeper announcement deadline will be assigned the highest ranking pitcher and position player on their roster according to Yahoo’s preseason O-Rank. The third keeper will be determined by the next highest O-Rank, regardless of the player’s position. The team will not be allowed to make a change to these keepers unless there is an injury during the week between the keeper deadline and the draft.

Decree #2 – Keeper Replacements Due to Injury

If a player that has been tagged as a keeper suffers a significant injury (ie: an injury where it is apparent they will miss Opening Day or wherein their health status post-draft date is undetermined) during the week between the keeper deadline and the draft, the owning team has 24 hours from the diagnosis of that injury to select an alternate keeper or keep the injured player. Regardless of which decision is made, it is final. A team cannot switch back to the original keeper if the injury proves less severe and they cannot wait to swap out the injured player.

Decree #3 – Drafting Non-Rosterable Players (aka: the Yoan Lopez/Fuck Off Rule)

If a team selects a player in the draft who is not currently available in the Yahoo player pool, they have the first rights to that player once he enters the player pool. In the interim, the team will be assigned the lowest ranked player in Yahoo on draft day. The owning team must keep the placeholder player on their active roster (ie: no NA slot or DL slot – if applicable) and the player must remain on the bench. They cannot put that player into their lineup. If the owning team violates either of these requirements, they forfeit the first rights to the non-available player. If they drop the assigned placeholder, they also forfeit the first rights to the non-available player.

Official 2016 Keepers

Keepers with Katie

This page will be updated when keepers are either made public by an owner or after the deadline when all keepers need to be submitted to the commissioner.

The deadline is 5pm (Central) on Saturday, March 5th.

*Note: A new rule was enacted, via Commissioner Decree, regarding teams who miss the deadline for keeper submission. Beginning immediately any team that doesn’t submit their keepers by the deadline (currently 5pm – the week before the draft), will be assigned the highest ranking pitcher and position player on their roster according to Yahoo’s preseason O-Rank. The third keeper will be determined by the next highest O-Rank, regardless of the player’s position.

Genies in a Bottle

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Mookie Betts (BOS-OF)
Kyle Schwarber (CHC-C/OF)
Carlos Carrasco (CLE-SP)

Draft Priority: 1

InSaNeAuDiO

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Miguel Cabrera (DET-1B)
Charlie Blackmon (COL-OF)
Johnny Cueto (SF-SP)

Draft Priority: 2

SL Disappointments

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Miguel Sano (MIN–3B)
Jose Bautista (TOR–OF)
Chris Archer (TB–SP)

Draft Priority: 3

Captain Jack Sparrow

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Giancarlo Stanton (MIA-OF)
Bryce Harper (WAS-OF)
Jose Fernandez (MIA-SP)

Draft Priority: 4

ZIMA

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Josh Donaldson (TOR–3B)
George Springer (HOU–OF)
Clayton Kershaw (LAD–SP)

Draft Priority: 5

Sea Bass v.10.0

16keepers-seabass

Kris Bryant (CHC–3B)
Yoenis Cespedes (NYM–OF)
Sonny Gray (OAK–SP)

Draft Priority: 6

High Cheese

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Anthony Rizzo (CHC-1B)
Freddie Freeman (ATL-1B)
Stephen Strasburg (WAS-SP)

Draft Priority: 7

Radioactive Rush

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Paul Goldschmidt (ARZ-1B)
Starling Marte (PIT-OF)
Matt Harvey (NYM-SP)

Draft Priority: 8

38 MPH Heaters

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AJ Pollock (ARI–OF)
Jose Altuve (HOU–2B)
Max Scherzer (WAS–SP)

Draft Priority: 9

Dome Dog

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Andrew McCutchen (PIT–OF)
Corey Seager (LAD–SS)
Jacob deGrom (NYM–SP)

Draft Priority: 10

TheFightingFernandos

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Jose Abreu (CWS–1B)
Ryan Braun (MIL-OF)
Gerrit Cole (PIT–SP)

Draft Priority: 11

money grubbers

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Nolan Arenado (COL-3B)
Carlos Correa (HOU-SS)
Chris Sale (CHW-SP)

Draft Priority: 12

cracker jack

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Manny Machado (BAL-SS/3B
Chris Davis (BAL-1B/OF)
Madison Bumgarner (SF-SP)

Draft Priority: 13

Salmon Kings

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Mike Trout (LAA-OF)
Anthony Rendon (WAS-2B/3B)
Jake Arrieta (CHC-SP)

Draft Priority: 14